Terms of Reference
A study on effectiveness of early warning system – present status, existing barriers, and possible solutions

1. Project Background

The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance is a multi-sectoral partnership focusing on finding practical ways to help communities in developed and developing countries strengthen their resilience to flood risk. Practical Action has been a partner of the Alliance since its foundation in 2013, supporting communities in Bangladesh, Peru, and Nepal to build resilience against floods.

Presently, Practical Action is working with Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance on the eight vulnerable communities of Dikrirchar and North Channel union of Faridpur Sadar Upazila, and Char Nasirpur and Dheukhali union of Sadarpur Upazila of Faridpur district of Bangladesh. These communities are vulnerable in terms of their economic status due to the proximity to the flood-prone river.  In addition to this, women, adolescent girls, elderly and PWD are also differently vulnerable to the flooding.  To build resilience of these communities against floods, one of the components that Practical Action is working on, is Mobile application based Flood Early Warning System. This mobile application automates components of the disaster management process, starting from providing weather updates, subsequent risk prevention and precautionary measures, early warning to risk prone communities, individuals, dissemination and coordination with communities, women’s group, volunteers, relevant government and non-government organizations, shelter landmarks, fire services, health services, emergency camps, emergency SMS to relatives, etc.

Bangladesh is a land of many rivers, and heavy monsoon rains. Some 30 to 35 per cent of the total land surface is flooded every year during the wet monsoon. In Bangladesh, early warning is more prompt and precise for cyclone, but not robust for floods. In connection to this, Practical Action’s experience in Asia with the early warning system (EWS) shows that loss of human and livestock life and livelihood can be minimized with the community based flood EWS.  However, there seems to be a gap present in the system to generate localized weather forecast and at the same time how to make EWS and forecasts protect assets and change behaviour long term.

In this context, Practical Action is going to conduct a study on effectiveness of early warning system focusing on the present status, existing barriers, and possible solutions to influence the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Extension Offices to provide localized actionable weather advisories for the end mile users.  The expected outcome of this study would be to understand the benefits and the existing barriers to generating localized weather advisories.

2. Objectives of the assignment

The overall objective of this study is to analyse the barriers to generate localized weather forecast, what makes EWS effective, what can be done to make EWS more effective, and in what conditions it is effective to use and correlating this to the benefits of such Early Warning System and localized weather advisory delivered for the end mile users.

Specific objectives

  • Map the components of the Early Warning and Forecasting System(s) from national to local levels and describe how this delivers warning and forecasts to the flood vulnerable communities in the Zurich project area
  • Capture learning from previous/ongoing projects in Bangladesh (Practical Action and others) on the effectiveness of flood and agro-meteorological Early Warning Systems with a focus on effectively reaching last mile clients addressing gender inequality in access and use of such information
  • Analyse the existing barriers to generate localized weather forecast and the possible solutions
  • Define effective delivery channels  clarifying how to communicate actionable information to the last mile including with persons with disabilities, old peoples, non-literate and women with mother tongue/ colloquial communication system. i.e., how to make EWS and forecasts protect household assets and bring about long-term behavioural change for all members of the communities, and;
  • Describe the performance of the National Early Warning and Forecasting System over time, is the system responding to the changing needs in the target communities.

3. Expected Outcomes

  • Influenced Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) to strengthen the national system to improve localized weather information for end mile users;
  • Value added to the knowledge and capability of BMD and Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) to provide more effective Early warning and forecast information including complex flood forecasts at a technical level; and
  • Influenced Extension offices (Department of Agricultural Extension - DAE, Department of Livestock’s- DoL, Department of fisheries- DoF etc.)  to provide localized weather advisory for the end mile users for long term sustainable change.
  • Improved EWS and weather forecast to increase the resilience of all members of the target communities including gender and social inclusiveness.

Key questions and/or Scope of Work

4. Methodology

The consultant/ firm is expected to propose an appropriate methodology including literature review. However, Practical Action prefers to apply explorative approach and mixed methods for data collection. Therefore, a methodology comprising qualitative (FGD (On-line, physical based on the COVID-19 situation of the country, KII, Case Studies) and quantitative (survey) methods would be given preference, taking the present COVID19 situation and gender issues into consideration.

5. Deliverables

The deliverable outputs by the consultant are as follows:

  • Produce an inception report based on initial discussion with the Practical Action Programme Management team. The initial report will include the proposed methodology, data collection and reporting plans including sample sizes and prospective (KII, FGD – number of respondents) with draft data collection tools such as interview guides, and a detail timeframe with specific dates for deliverables.
  • Prepare draft research report consolidating findings from the literature review and the field findings addressing the stated objectives of the study with appropriate recommendations.
  • Prepare and submit the final research report (the final report will contain a short executive summary, and a main body of the paper covering the background, a description of methods and limitations, findings related to the TOR objectives, analysis, conclusions (the report contents will be discussed and agreed at inception phase).
  • Prepare presentations with key findings which can be used by Practical Action team and deliver the presentation in learning events, donor meetings and workshops etc. determined by Practical Action.
  • Conduct a validation workshop (online/off-line based on the COVID-19 pandemic) of the report findings with key stakeholders in Dhaka.
  • Develop a policy brief highlighting the key findings and recommendations both in Bangla and English

5. Time frame: The duration of the consultancy work will be between June 2021 and August  2021.

6. Required qualification and experience of the consultant/firm

The consultant/firm should have at least the following qualification:
The consultant should have practical, demonstrable, and relevant experience of doing similar assignments. Required experience and expertise for the consultant will include: 

  • The consultant must be an individual or an institution holding necessary legal status to work in Bangladesh; 
  • Master’s degree/Ph.D. in Disaster Management/Natural Science/Sociology or equivalent fields having at least 10 years’ experience in the related field. 
  • Minimum 7 years working experience, particularly in research/study related to Disaster risk reduction and climate Change, River eroded Displaced people and humanitarian response programme. 
  • Good understanding about study methodologies preferably in Early Warning System, Natural Hazard, Vulnerability and risk assessment in Bangladesh. 
  • The consultant must demonstrate knowledge in developing this type of study report. 
  • Good interpersonal skills, including the ability to conduct discussions with stakeholders and community groups 
  • The consultant should have a proven ability and experience on following areas: 
    • policy level connections with BMD, FFWC, DDM. 
    • Research report/paper writing capacity 
    • Capacity to work in COVID situation (where he is, how can communicate online) 
    • Relevant educational qualifications 
    • Experience of working with govt. and research /academia 
    • Relevant experience in Disaster Management and climate change related works 
  • Strong analytical, presentation and writing skills in Bangla and English.  

 
7. The General Terms and Conditions:

  • All soft and hard copies of the assignment will be treated as the property of the client. The consultant could not use/disclose any data for any personal or organizational purposes
  • In any circumstances consultant shall have no opportunity to alter the timeline and planning of data collection and submission of first draft and final report. 
  • The consultant must maintain the standard quality in data collection, processing and reporting
  • The consultant shall have the responsibility to rewrite the report, modification of sections until the satisfaction of quality required by the client.
  • In case of any deviation, the client shall have the right to terminate the agreement at any point of the project.
  • Consultant shall be bound to pay back the full money to the client given as advance of payment in case of any deviation, dissatisfaction of quality and other point mentioned in the agreement.
  • The client will not deduct withholding tax from the consultancy fees which will be in conformity with the prevailing government rates. 

8. Evaluation process of consultant selection
The selection committee will evaluate the technical skill and practical expertise of the consultants based on set out evaluation criteria as follows. A cumulative weighted-scoring method will be applied to evaluate the proposal. The award of the contract will be made to the consultant and determined with reference to this ToR.

9. Mode of Payment

  • 25% of total contract amount will be paid upon signing the agreement and submission of inception report including detailed methodology of the study
  • 30% of total contract amount will be paid upon signing the agreement and submission of Draft report of the study
  • Remaining 40% will be paid upon submission of all the deliverables including the Final report, policy brief etc. as stated in the ToR

10. Proposals submission

A proposal including both technical and financial aspects should be emailed to Afsari.begum@practicalaction.org.bd by May 26, 2021 COB with a subject line “study on effectiveness of early warning system – present status, existing barriers, and possible solutions”. Please include a detailed CV of the experts (only) highlighting relevant experience. Both organization, consulting firm and individual consultants are encouraged to apply. No late and hard-copy submissions will be accepted. Practical Action reserves the sole right to select the consultant.